Could the Apple Vision Pro fund my retirement?

Back in July 2007, I got my hands on the hottest tech product of the day: the original iPhone with 4GB of storage. It cost $499. Stupidly, I opened and used mine. I say “stupidly” because almost exactly 16 years later an original, unopened iPhone with 4GB of storage sold at auction for $190,373.

Now, 17 years later, do I have a chance at redemption? Could the latest first-generation Apple device, the Vision Pro, which went on sale to the public yesterday, appreciate in value as much as that original iPhone did? If I were to buy a Vision Pro today and leave it in the box for 20 years, could I auction it off for six figures, giving my retirement years a nice financial cushion?

The iPhone as an investment vehicle

On July 16, 2023, the original 4GB iPhone new in its box sold at an auction hosted by LCG Auctions for an eye-watering $190,372.80. There were 28 bids on the device, and the starting bid was a humble $10,000. Before this auction, the highest known price paid for an original iPhone (this one an 8GB version) was $63,356.40. Not too, shabby—but no six figures.

To put the recent auction price of $190,373 into perspective, that’s a return of more than 38,000% in just 16 years. Apple’s actual stock (ticker: AAPL) rose just over 4,300% during that same period, and the NASDAQ Composite rose just over 420%.

In other words, if you purchased an original 4GB iPhone in 2007 and left it in the box to sell 16 years later, it would have been a better investment decision than if you spent that $499 on AAPL stock back in the day or on an index fund that mimics the NASDAQ. But just how did that iPhone manage to outperform the Nasdaq and AAPL?

First, this particular iPhone was relatively rare. When Apple unveiled the iPhone in 2007 it came in 4GB or 8GB models. Yet Apple soon found that the 8GB size was much more popular than the 4GB, so it quickly discontinued the smaller one. This means that 4GB iPhones were only on sale for a few months. The more rare a collectible, the more valuable it is—just a case of supply versus demand. Second, this iPhone box was unopened. In the collectors market, no matter if it’s action figures or electronics, unopened items fetch significantly higher prices than their opened counterparts.

For collectibles’ value, it’s not just about rarity

Of course, there have to be plenty of unopened Android phones with 4GB of storage from the late aughts out there, and they aren’t fetching six figures at auction. So why an iPhone?

Unlike other smartphones, the original iPhone was one of the defining products in tech history, much like the original Walkman or the first computer. And not only did it change the technological landscape, it embedded itself in the cultural landscape. It’s the cultural importance of the original iPhone that likely led to its staggering valuation.

A great example of how cultural importance can lead to astronomical values for a product is the comic book marketplace. In 1939, the average comic book cost ten cents. Thanks to the healthy comic collectors market today (and some inflation), many comic books from 1939 can sell for thousands or tens of thousands, mainly due to their age and rarity. Yet in 2022, a copy of Detective Comics #27 sold for a whopping $1.74 million. The difference between this comic book and other ten-cent comics from 1939? It introduced Batman—the caped crusader who has since infiltrated our culture. Batman was the archetype for nearly every vigilante hero who came after, and today his legacy is worth billions to DC Comics owner Warner Bros. Discovery.

The same is true for the iPhone’s impact. It inspired the design of virtually every smartphone that followed it. But more than that, it’s the device that changed the way we communicate, shop, and navigate the world. It sparked a revolution that transcended mere consumer technology.

So, what about the Apple Vision Pro?

Seventeen years after Apple introduced that iPhone, the company is hoping that its latest device, the Apple Vision Pro, becomes a technological and cultural icon, too. But could an original, unopened Vision Pro become just as valuable as the original iPhone is today?

As I’ve mentioned, that depends on two main factors. The first is scarcity: if a hundred thousand people read this and rush out to buy a Vision Pro to keep new in its box to sell 20 years from now, there will be 100,000 unopened original Vision Pros 20 years from now, making them common, not rare, and thus keeping their values depressed.

But let’s say that only a few people keep an original Vision Pro unopened and in pristine condition. Could those fetch six figures two decades from now?

That largely depends on how customers and our wider culture react to the new product—and how Apple’s spatial computer changes the technology landscape in the decades ahead—if it does at all. If the Apple Vision Pro truly kicks off the era of mass spatial computing and alters how we communicate, consume, and work, then yes, it will mark another inflection point in personal technology and potentially fetch a massive sum.

But if the Vision Pro doesn’t become a culturally defining device, an original new-in-box one 20 years from now is not likely to see the 38,000% return the 4GB iPhone has. Who knows—maybe it won’t even fetch the $3,499 it retails for today.

I, for one, will not be buying a Vision Pro to keep to help fund my future retirement. Only time will tell if I regret this as much as I regret opening my 4GB iPhone.

https://www.fastcompany.com/91016935/apple-vision-pro-fund-my-retirement-4gb-iphone-box-auction?partner=rss&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss+fastcompany&utm_content=rss