It’s not Black Friday yet, but online shoppers have already spent more than last year

Black Friday’s creep from a single day event to a month-long one seems to be paying off for retailers.

A new report from Adobe Analytics finds that the holiday shopping season is off to a strong start with consumer spending already on a record pace.

In the first 20 days of the holiday season (November 1 through November 20), consumers have already spent $63.2 billion online, a 5% increase from a year ago. Seventeen of those days have seen people spending $3 billion or more per day, compared with just 13 days in the same period last year.

That year-over-year increase is even higher than Adobe was expecting. Analysts at the company had predicted a 4.8% jump this year. And with the actual Black Friday and Cyber Monday looming, the numbers are likely to rise even higher.

“All eyes are on the consumer as we near Cyber Week, given a holiday season where shoppers are dealing with rising costs, and retailers are contending with an uncertain demand environment,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, in a statement. “E-commerce growth has remained resilient so far due to strong early discounts, while also being driven by more impulse shopping on mobile devices and an uptick in the use of flexible payment methods.”

While costs are on the rise elsewhere thanks to higher interest rates and many consumers are once again facing student loan payments, that’s not deterring them from taking advantage of online sales.

During the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, Adobe is forecasting online sales of $37.2 billion, a 5.4% increase over last year. That brief period will represent 16.8% of the full holiday season sales, the company says.

The deals, so far, have been good. Adobe says electronics have been as much as 24% off—and some toys have been 25% cheaper than their suggested price. That led to a 76% surge in online sales of toys compared to the daily average last month.

Clothes were 21% cheaper. Televisions saw a 19% drop. And sporting goods fell 15%. All of those discounts will be even steeper during Black Friday and Cyber Monday (with televisions down 22%, toys at a 35% discount, and apparel 25% off).

Adobe Analytics isn’t the only analyst group that’s optimistic about consumer spending this year. Deloitte’s 2023 holiday retail survey expects consumers to spend an average of $169 online on Black Friday, compared to just $121 in 2019. During the five-day, post-Thanksgiving period, the company is expecting a 13% surge this year.

Retailers, though, are still a bit bearish on the 2023 holidays. Lowe’s, Best Buy, and Kohl’s have all cut their holiday sales forecasts, saying shoppers appear less likely to spend heavily this holiday season and their buying habits will be guided by bargain hunting.

“Consumer demand has been even more uneven and difficult to predict,” said Corie Barry, Best Buy CEO, in an earnings report Tuesday. “Based on the sales trends in Q3 and so far in November, we believe it is prudent to lower our annual revenue outlook. [. . .] We are excited for the important holiday season and are prepared for a customer who is very deal-focused with promotions and deals for all budgets.”

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