Nobody is going to warn you about what’s coming

It’s sort of funny seeing everyone stressing out about Fed interest rate hikes, inflation, recession, etc.

Isn’t it true that all the known economic risks that people are discussing today are priced into the markets? If the risks are in the minds of the public long enough then it is less likely to occur, or be as severe.

In the history of the stock market, it seems as though the biggest crashes and worst disasters were black swan events that obviously nobody saw coming at the time.

In January 2020 nobody warned me about the pandemic

When everyone was pumping speculative, high-growth tech stocks in late 2020, nobody warned me that the bubble would burst months later

In January 2022, when people were discussing the market outlook for the new year, nobody warned me that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

In the Fall of 2022, when the market sentiment was god awful, and the media was spewing doomsday articles, nobody warned me that was the bottom of the bear market, so far, for stocks and crypto.

Nobody warned me about that regional banking crisis in March 2023

Nobody warned me before Toys R Us went out of business

Nobody would have warned me in 2007 about 2008.

Obviously, hardly anyone could have warned me about the events above and that’s the point.

I’m convinced that when the next severe recession does eventually hit, weeks or years from now, the catalyst that triggers it will not be anything we’re discussing now. The biggest threat to the economy and stock market today isn’t the Fed or inflation.

If anyone “warns” you about what’s going to happen they’re only trying to protect their money, not yours.

Everyone’s portfolio would perform better if we just turned off the news, delete the reddit and YouTube apps, and stick to our own convictions.

Rant over.