There seem to be a lot of people holding cash/t-bills/money market funds expecting lower prices on the stock market where they can deploy their cash. How will this work out?
Some possible scenarios:
'1. The market does find lower levels, inflation comes down, the economy is doing okay, fed are being move doveish. People buy in and new bull market begins.
2 (a). The market finds lower levels, inflation comes down, the economy is doing okay, fed are being move doveish. People buy in, but it's a false bottom - economy goes to shit and we see further major drops.
2 (b). Same as above but people don't buy the false bottom, correctly wait for another bottom and it plays out like (1)
3 (a). The market starts to climb from here and is higher 6-12 months from now. Inflation is down, economy appears still strong. Fed signal they will cut rates as inflation is nearing target. People buy in. New bull market
3 (b) Same as above but the economy goes to shit after people buy in and the market drops severely.
Essentially the question is, will market timing go better than it historically has this time, and if not, how will it fail?
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/122insl/if_market_timing_generally_doesnt_work_out_for/
Login to add comment
Other posts in this group
Please use this thread to discuss your portfolio, learn of other stock tickers, and help out users by giving constructive criticism.
Why quarterly? Public comp
When you sell a stock to buy another stock, do you prefer to set the estimated amount of the capital gains taxes aside in a money market or do you think it better to
Saving for retirement is crucial, but relying solely on a 401(k) might not be enough due to high inflation. Consider investing in growth stocks, especially in the tec
I’m think this is not a good investment as there is no chatter at all on the 52 week low. They are involved in a class action lawsuits by investors and credit card co
Sorry if this is the wrong sub. Let’s say I had $1 million in VOO but I wanted to sell half of it to buy SCHD. It would suck to pay taxes on $500k. So how would you g
Hey guys, I did a deep dive into Crocs. In this analysis, I will do a brief breakdown of the company and go over some quantitative data, qualitative data and estimate