I don't think people get this. The inflation has been so bad over the past couple years, that our 10-year annualized average has been 2.2358%. (And for what it's worth, the previous 10-year span was 2.1% annualized, so still not 2.0%.)
In order to average a 2.0% inflation rate across 15 years (the previous 10 plus the next 5), we'd have to get inflation to an annualized 1.54% for the next 5 years. If we allowed ourselves the next decade to bring the 20-year average down, we'd need roughly 1.75% over the next 10 years.
1.54% annualized would require 0.12% MoM readings. 1.75% annualized would require under 0.15% MoM readings.
So, when people are talking about inflation is going back the other way, and time to turn on the money printers, keep this in mind. If the Fed really cared about 2.0% PCE inflation, we'd be really tight for a long time.
Raw data:
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12g1fp1/pce_inflation_has_averaged_223_for_the_last_10/
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