Back in 2004, Bernanke started raising rates. I believe he raised rates consecutively going into 2006. Stock market still went up into September 2007 despite the hikes. In 2017 to fall 2018, Yellen and Powell raised rates. The stock market also went up despite the hikes. Fast forward to late 2021. The stock market topped BEFORE the Fed started to hike. I think this is a sign that the bubble in 2021 was so monstrous that historical precedent didn't matter. The old adage is to buy the 1st the Fed hike and sell the 1st Fed cut. I think we are still looking for the September 2007/September 2018 top for this market. Treasury yields haven't broken down yet. Look at Friday's action in treasury bonds. They sold off after the banks reported good earnings. This is a sign that the economy isn't falling off a cliff yet. This is usually a sign that the Fed is not ready to pause. Does anyone think we get new highs before things fall apart? Similar to fall 2007 and 2018.
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12nqwyl/rate_hiking_cycle_in_the_past_vs_stock_market/
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