The M2 money supply is contracting, unemployment is super low, we are in a deep protracted yield curve inversion, and the Fed is in a tightening cycle. Every time these things have ever been true at the same time we’ve gone into a very deep recession. There is 1.5T in office real estate coming up on refinancing soon. The property is worth 40% less and the rates are high. Those landlords are going to walk away and the banks are going to be left holding the bag. Congress is about to start fighting over raising the debt ceiling soon. When they do raise it, the Treasury is required to refill its general account. That’s going to pull a huge amount of liquidity out of the system when it can least afford it. Lending standards will get even tighter than they are now.
Any thoughts on this?
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12p88zy/things_are_not_looking_great/
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