The idea is to long oil/gas and short tech and goldminers starting here, but all short idea are very welcome.
Current short ideas so far:
•NEM (Newmont goldmining) is valued at x100 last year free cashflow (x37 average last 6 years), and they have 12.5Bn in net liabillities (total liabilities minus current assets). Imo, gold will decline this year as the 10 year yield rise in step with Fed-rates and energy prices.
•Intel,
the bad; X86 is shit compared to the ARM instruction set (why Apple laptop batterlife doubled with the M1 chip). Negative 21Bn free cashflow in '22! CHIPS act money only due for '24. Downcycle in personal computer right now. Each plant-complex in Ohio and Germany to cost 100Bn.
the good: Sapphire Rapids is the first competitive datacenter CPU in years. The two new Arizona plants are paid and owned 49% (15Bn) by Brookefield Capital who will also provide another 15Bn.
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/12pbd49/best_short_ideas/
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