HIFS, a great bank with short term headwinds

I posted this over at the vale investing sub, but thought I'd throw it up here too, with a few additions.

Is anyone on this sub watching HIFS, Hingham Institution for savings?

This name comes up repeatedly as one of the best run, most risk averse, and still steady growing banks out there. However, it's been getting killed lately.

Their earnings have been dropping because they make less money when the yield curve is inverted (borrow short, lend long is bad when short term rates are higher than the long term ones). Management warned of this in early 2022 and continued to do so into this year. Their ROE dopped to 8% on the last earnings.

However, the yield curve will correct. When it does, HIFS should return to higher profit levels. Currently the stock is within a few percent of book value ($187 last I checked, with the stock trading around $196), so pretty cheap.

If they return to their previous ROE (around 15%), I've run some models averaging a 20% average annual return. If they return to 10-12% ROE, I've projected 10% annual returns. Worst case is that they never correct, but since they have already dropped to near book value, I don't see much downside. In this case, probably looking at 0-2% returns annually.

I'm assuming about a 20% chance of the worst case scenario, 40% the mid case, and 40% the best case. That gives me an 80% chance of returns above the S&P 500. Not bad.

I had a price target set of $200, but right now this stock is a falling knife. I'd like to see some bottoming before committing.

Anyone else watching this name, or have opinions on it?