Looking at the subsection of housing development stages seems to indicate that the real estate market is currently fueled by the demand created from 2020's liquidity boom.
Data Source: FRED
Charts: https://imgur.com/a/6X629Se
(Chart 1)
While permits have returned to 2019 levels (chart indexed to Dec-2019) and seem to fluctuate with an expectation of interest rates being cut by the latter half of 2023. Is there more front-end demand destruction to come?
As developments complete, permits fall, and the potential for sticky inflation could extend the timeline of high interest rates - will housing find a new bottom? Will high interest rates keep buyers from buying the new inventory while construction demand slows?
(Chart 2)
30Yr premiums are at a 15 year high with risk being priced into the market. Homebuilders appear unshaken from the height of the priced risk as building continues with pent-up demand being tapped.
The median house price ballooned 48.6% in 2 years from Q2-2020 to Q4-2022. While Q1 2023 showed a price fall of 8.9%, was this the popping of the real estate bubble?
My opinion is we have more to see.
[link] [comments] https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/134c4xs/did_the_re_bubble_pop/
Login to add comment
Other posts in this group
Please use this thread to discuss your portfolio, learn of other stock tickers, and help out users by giving constructive criticism.
Why quarterly? Public comp
When you sell a stock to buy another stock, do you prefer to set the estimated amount of the capital gains taxes aside in a money market or do you think it better to
Saving for retirement is crucial, but relying solely on a 401(k) might not be enough due to high inflation. Consider investing in growth stocks, especially in the tec
I’m think this is not a good investment as there is no chatter at all on the 52 week low. They are involved in a class action lawsuits by investors and credit card co
Sorry if this is the wrong sub. Let’s say I had $1 million in VOO but I wanted to sell half of it to buy SCHD. It would suck to pay taxes on $500k. So how would you g
Hey guys, I did a deep dive into Crocs. In this analysis, I will do a brief breakdown of the company and go over some quantitative data, qualitative data and estimate
