Here are some random things I have thought about recently and am curious of how we could use them to think a little differently about the market and stocks in near future differently. I know it might sound ridiculous but people thought I was crazy when COVID appeared in the USA in early 2020 that the market and stocks would slide big time. I believe we are going to have a big recession starting in the next 12 months and I absolutely think it will be akin to 2008/2009. Here are some random things I have come across:
1) My best friend works in a group home and has for over 20 years. They read the mail and listen to phonically that come/go from a group home for people who have addictions to substances. They swear they have never read about and listened to so many people complain about not being able to pay their bills. They said it was normal, even in 2008/2009 to maybe come across out of the usual 300 letters a week to maybe have 10 complaining about money. Nope - in the past few months half of the mail has some kind of complaint about how rent is too high, the sender if facing eviction, etc. At first I did not think anything of this but it is definitely interesting.
2) People are stacking credit card debt like never before source: https://www.cnbc.com/select/us-credit-card-debt-hits-all-time-high/. I have hundreds of acquittances and on social media people in droves (and I am talking about a large range of people here - people who work fast food to people who are dentists or lawyers) are pretty much saying they are going on vacation, putting it on a credit card, and have no idea how they are going to pay it off but are just like fuck it.
3) Is it not even remotely upsetting that for many stocks regardless if we are talking small to mega cap that for many the one of few positive days in the past several weeks has been when an announcement is made of massive layoffs? I get why a stock tends to go up between two and four percent if the announcement of layoffs is made: Because that means less money needed to pay people in a high inflation environment we are in, which means the balance sheet will later have more money leftover for shareholders. However, are we just going to pretend that this is normal? Literally handfuls of stocks are not having any good days unless they announce layoffs. This is not normal and our market should not be acting like this.
What I am trying to convey here is that just like in early 2020 some of us were saying to tread carefully because that thing nobody knew how to even pronounce or spell in February 2020 could become something big and nasty - which it did. I feel the exact same way right now. Are people not going inside casinos and realizing they are empty compared to normal? Or strip clubs? Casinos and strip clubs both require physical money. Sure the restaurants in the casino or next to the strip club might be rocking - but that is because people can charge their soon to be third maxed out credit card for that stuff - you cannot charge a credit card to go play at the casino or to take part of the strip club. What I am planning on doing is waiting for the beginning of shit to hit the fan in the next 12 months because (1) inflation is way worse than many think and (2) layoffs will continue and the jobs will not ever come back because AI will be grabbing those in just the next few years... I say a person should day trade SQQQ and when the market dips 30% from where it is right now in May 2023 should begin to dollar cost average back in to stocks that will make you millionaires long term: Apple, Tesla, Roblox, Salesforce, Microsoft, NVIDIA, etc.
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