MRNA Strong-Buy, wondering where I'm going wrong with this.

I've been following Moderna for some time and am longterm bullish on the implementation of this biotech but until recent I've been pretty unsure of the short-to-medium term path (but I now hold 4 synthetic longs opened at around 135, 150 strike). Of late, I now consider MRNA to be undervalued given what looks to be an imminent phase III launch after good-if-not-great results on their neoantigen melanoma vaccine phase II result. I'll admit, the Kaplan Meier tables they publish on combo with Pembro vs Pembro alone are completely useless, from a clinical perspective, but this is at worst a good sign for their ability to target useful tumour antigens given clearly statistically significant hazard ratios. This, furthermore, is demonstration of the true cutting edge of this technology: the use of AI to identify and predict the usefulness of targeting specific antigens/epitopes. Combine this with near-imminent approval of their RSV vaccine (note: Pfizer and GSK's RSV vaccines are essentially peptide vaccines, somewhat unproven technology, and Moderna's COVID vaccine, with its aggressive dosing, actually had superior efficacy to the lower dose Pfizer’s COVID vaccine and a much better AE profile to the AZ and JnJ viral vectors) and the progress of its influenza candidates (which got no love because of its failure to demonstrate non-inferiority over Influenza B in South America, even though Influenza B has most strains near extinction and the study didn't overlap with normal seasonal spikes in cases in the tropics).

Moderna’s management has been suspect: huge inventory write-downs at the tale end of the pandemic but they surpassed expectation on sales contracts committed to in Q1 (I believe their bizdev teams are getting to a level where they can compete with the big boys). The big question is whether that gross margin figure starts to increase, as the CFO has predicted (but missed in Q1). But this is the growing pains of a newly-commercialized biotech company. In the longterm, I do see this biotech being amazingly affordable from a production standpoint (they have no need for immortal cell lines, mRNA production is pretty simple, it’s all base pairs).

I believe Moderna is undervalued and support a 12-month pricing of 210 (hybrid DCF, multiples are almost useless given Moderna's unique situation of having 1 aging product but 48 in the pipeline).

Investment thesis: near-term-approval candidate news is not being reacted to even though there is enormous potential of a cancer vaccine or a universal influenza vaccine, Moderna's vaccines to date have been superior to all others for the same indication (including Pfizer's mRNA COVID vaccine), the company is developing incredible internal competency in targeting biological epitopes for disease management/prevention, they have large-cap cash balances but are still in a very very young development stage where R&D is often most expensive (because of risk), and we've only scratched the surface of what this technology can do (they're only producing very simple proteins/macromolecules but I bet they'll progress to producing complex subunits to be assembled in vivo, like a mab). Catalysts: RSV approval (and a second product line), COVID resurgence (already happening in places where they used substandard vaccines), cancer vaccine phase III initiation.

I would love to know your thoughts. Please tell me what I’m missing or if you disagree.