Tesla Q2 2025 earnings preview: Here are the top 5 issues analysts are watching

Tesla is likely to post its biggest drop in quarterly revenue in more than a decade on Wednesday, as the EV maker grapples with issues including increased competition, a lack of new models and consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk.

Here are the top five issues investors, analysts and Tesla fans are watching closely.

WILL MUSK BE DISTRACTED BY POLITICS?

Musk formed a new U.S. political party, the America Party, earlier this month, after a public feud with President Donald Trump over a tax-cut and spending bill. Three months ago, when he was still allied with Trump, Musk said he was pulling back from working in the president’s administration. Founding the party has rekindled worries that Musk will be distracted from business as it faces mounting competition, especially in its key China market, and as he tries to turn Tesla into a robotics and AI company.

Musk said on Sunday that he was back to working seven days a week and sleeping in the office when his small children were away.

HOW FAST CAN ROBOTAXI SERVICES EXPAND?

Last month, Tesla launched a small trial of its self-driving taxi service in Austin, Texas, with roughly a dozen of its Model Y SUVs and several restrictions, including safety supervisors in front passenger seats. Tesla enthusiasts lauded the efforts, although videos showed some driving mistakes.

Musk has said the service would reach the San Francisco Bay Area “in a month or two,” depending on regulatory approvals, but Tesla has not applied for necessary permits to test or deploy driverless vehicles, regulators in California told Reuters this month. Investors will want to know how the expansion can go forward.

WHERE IS THE CHEAPER TESLA?

When Musk shifted his focus to robotaxis, he cancelled plans to build a new, cheaper EV platform. Tesla had promised to start producing the first of more affordable EV models by the end of June, but the company has not yet confirmed if it has met that target. Investors are keen for an update on those plans. Sources had told Reuters in April that a stripped-down version of the Model Y was likely to be delayed by months.

Analysts have already cut their 2025 delivery estimate for the cheaper car to below 50,000 vehicles, from 63,500 at the start of the year, according to eight of them polled by Visible Alpha.

CAN THE MODEL Y REFRESH BOOST SALES?

Tesla rolled out a refreshed version of the Model Y this year, a move investors hoped would recharge flagging sales. Deliveries of the SUV and its Model 3 compact sedan — Tesla’s volume drivers — plunged in the second quarter.

While Tesla blamed a January production pause to retool plants, some analysts have said the re-styling — including new front and rear light bars and a touchscreen for back-seat passengers — was not enough to boost demand. Investors will want to know Musk’s view of the rollout to date and going forward.

With total deliveries falling 13.5% to 384,122 units in the second quarter, the second straight quarterly decline, revenue is expected to fall 11.2% year-on-year, despite aggressive discounting and low-cost financing.

HOW SOON WILL REGULATORY CREDITS DWINDLE?

Sales of regulatory credits — a silent profit engine for Tesla — are set to dry up after recent legislation. Tesla earned $2.8 billion in 2024 from such credits sold to legacy automakers to help them comply with emissions rules. Without them, the company would have reported a loss in the first quarter of this year.

Analysts expect pressure on Tesla and they are already resetting their revenue estimates for the year.

—Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy, Reuters

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