The proposal filed on Wednesday by the Department of Justice (DOJ) to completely dismantle Google’s monopoly in the world of search would require the company to sell off its Chrome browser, which has a 67% market share worldwide. And it would have huge ramifications for the broader tech sector. If, that is, it can survive a regime change in Washington, D.C.
Google has called the proposal “staggering” and “radical,” claiming it would hurt both the company and the American people. But many have welcomed the move by the DOJ and Jonathan Kanter, the assistant attorney general who sits within the department’s antitrust division.
There’s just one key question: whether the DOJ’s effort lasts the next few months until remedies are agreed upon in the spring—by which time a new administration will have taken the reins in the White House.
“This is really Jonathan Kanter’s last stand,” says Adam Kovacevich, founder and CEO of the Chamber of Progress, a tech industry coalition. Kovacevich says Kanter appears to have undertaken the action as a last-ditch attempt to make an impact before the change in president, and a potential new approach to tech hegemony. Donald Trump has hinted on the campaign trail that a more laissez-faire approach to tech companies’ market dominance and has even suggested winding back a planned ban on TikTok once he assumes power. (It’s worth noting, however, that the DOJ’s initial case against Google was filed during Trump’s first administration.)
“As we enter a period where energy-hungry AI is the next big thing for these corporations, we need more—not less—regulatory intervention,” says tech historian Mar Hicks. “Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the incoming administration will prioritize resources or expertise to explore harm-reducing regulations or to follow through on any of the current administration’s efforts, as Google’s executives well know.”
The potential that Google’s worst week ever, which would require it to unwind its entire business model, might not be that troubling after all looms large against the ticking clock. “[Kanter] won’t be around for the remedies trial in the spring, the ultimate remedy decision, and the appeal—so he clearly saw no downside in throwing remedy spaghetti against the wall,” says Kovacevich.
The big unknown is what happens come January 20, when Trump is sworn in. “Trump has said he doesn’t want to break up Google, but it’s too early to tell how the DOJ’s strategy might change next year—especially since there is also likely to be turnover among the department’s attorneys,” says Kovacevich. The fact that Trump’s initial pick for attorney general, Rep. Matt Gaetz, has withdrawn from the running throws the future into even more turmoil.
The timeline of the process helps Google in that sense, with revised proposed remedies due to be submitted by the DOJ in court come March, and a trial over those remedies scheduled for April. By then, everything could well have changed—and for Google, potentially for the better.
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