Nintendo thinks it'll sell 15m Switch 2s in its first fiscal year

Nintendo is throwing some cold water on Switch 2 sales estimates even though launch demand seems to be off the charts. In its latest earnings report, the company projected sales of 15 million Switch 2 units in its first year on sale to March 2026, fewer than analyst predictions of 16.8 million. It didn't explain the number but it's likely due to uncertainty around US tariffs and the fact that Nintendo is usually cautious with its forecasts. 

Switch 2 sales opened with a bang as resellers immediately sold out and Nintendo said its own pre-orders may not arrive until after the June 5th launch. That shows there's a lot of pent-up demand for the new model following the Switch's eight year run, but last month Nintendo delayed pre-orders due to concerns over Trump's tariffs on electronic goods. Despite its fears (and buyer complaints about the $450 price tag), the company received 2.2 million applications for pre-orders in Japan alone, a number that Nintendo said "far exceeds our expectations."

Nintendo has sold over 150 million Switch consoles to date, including 17.79 million in the first 13 months — so the Switch 2 is on a similar pace, even with the conservative estimates. In any case, it needs to have a great year as sales have fallen off a cliff (down 30.3 percent over last year), as one would expect with a new console imminent.