Nintendo's Switch 2 sales forecast predicts 15 million consoles in its first fiscal year

Nintendo is throwing some cold water on Switch 2 sales estimates even though launch demand seems to be off the charts. In its latest earnings report, the company projected sales of 15 million Switch 2 units in its first year on sale to March 2026, fewer than analyst predictions of 16.8 million. It didn't explain the number but it's likely due to uncertainty around US tariffs and the fact that Nintendo is usually cautious with its forecasts. 

Switch 2 sales opened with a bang as resellers immediately sold out and the company said Nintendo Switch 2 pre orders may not arrive until after the June 5th launch. That shows there's a lot of pent-up demand for the new model following the Switch's eight year run, but last month Nintendo delayed pre-orders due to concerns over Trump's tariffs on electronic goods. Despite its fears (and buyer complaints about the $450 price tag), the company received 2.2 million applications for pre-orders in Japan alone, a number that Nintendo said "far exceeds our expectations."

Speaking to investors after the earnings report was released, Nintendo president Shuntaro Furakawa cautioned that US tariffs are one area the company does not have control over. According to Yahoo Japan, Furakawa explained that Nintendo's current policy is to recognize the tariffs as a cost, but if additional tariffs necessitate a price increase in the US then demand in the country may fall. He also highlighted that rising prices of daily expenses and food could negatively impact customers' budgets for games. At present, the company expects 45 million Switch 2 games to be sold through the financial year. 

Nintendo has sold over 150 million Switch consoles to date, including 17.79 million in the first 13 months — so the Switch 2 is on a similar pace, even with the conservative estimates. In any case, it needs to have a great year as sales have fallen off a cliff (down 30.3 percent over last year), as one would expect with a new console imminent.

Update, May 8, 2:30PM ET: This story was updated after publish to include comments from Nintendo president Shuntaro Furakawa on the potential future impacts of tariffs on Switch sales.

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